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[post_content] => Tom Fridrich, JD, CLU, ChFC®, Senior Wealth Planner
Thinking about making some New Year's resolutions? Add financial wellbeing to your list. It's a terrific time to identify goals and opportunities that may put you in a better financial position — not only in the upcoming year, but in the years going forward. Here's how:
Identify Financial Goals
The idea here is to build a plan around a specific goal. For example, if you have a two-year goal of saving money for a down payment on a house, make a list of relevant factors like home prices in your desired neighborhoods and what a 20% down payment would look like, assuming you don't qualify for special mortgage products. Next, figure out the mechanics of how you are going to reach that goal. Will you set aside savings weekly or monthly? And where will you deposit the savings?
Setting goals and creating an infrastructure around them is an important exercise that can deliver not only clarity but the outcome you're aiming for.
Create a Budget
A budget is an excellent way to help you stay on track in real time with your expenses. There are plenty of fees and charges that are easy to miss: streaming services, ATM surcharges, fees at financial institutions if you fail to maintain a certain balance, your kids' gaming sites. These are fees that can add up to big money. Another suggestion is to contact vendors like your phone, newspaper and cable companies to inquire about any promotions that could lower your costs.
Two budgeting apps I like: Mint, which is free and great for tracking and categorizing expenses; and YNAB (You Need a Budget), which costs $100 a year but is ad-free.
Pay Down Debt
This is important for all kinds of reasons — including the fact that it will help elevate your credit score. It's a number that lenders take a hard look at when you apply for a mortgage or another personal loan. Certain employers may also order a credit report during the hiring process to understand more about you. Your credit score may play a part in your insurance premiums on your home and auto policy, so having a strong score can either help you save money or cost you money depending on how good or poor it is.
A good rule of thumb is to pay down accounts with higher interest rates first like credit cards and other personal loans. Rates have increased recently, so make sure you understand how that may be affecting your current loans. If you have multiple credit cards, investigate offers to transfer the balances to a single card. Often, there's an attractive introductory rate for a year that bumps up later, so make sure you know when that will occur. It's a window that could help buy time to pay the debt off quicker.
Calculate Personal Net Worth
Understanding your personal net worth will give you a clearer picture of where you stand financially. Are you getting closer to the number you need to retire, for example, or to pay for college for your kids?
The formula is simple. Add up all of your assets and subtract your debt. Debt is what you owe to any creditor, and assets include the value of all of your bank, brokerage, investment and crypto accounts, real estate holdings, and high-ticket vehicles like jets, boats and luxury cars.
Revisit Your Estate Plan
It's always a good idea to take a fresh look at your estate plan on an annual basis. Do most people do that? No, but they should. Relationships change, circumstances change, and any number of life events could create a need for an update or a modification.
For starters, you want to have an estate plan which would include a will and/or trust, powers of attorney and a living will. If you have one, good for you. Dust it off and review it to make sure it still aligns with where you are today. Then, review beneficiary designations because those assets will pass outside of your estate plan so you can’t just ignore them thinking your will or trust will supersede anything in those designations. One item that is becoming more important is to make sure the administrator of your estate — whether it's a spouse or a trustee — has a complete list of your online financial accounts and other digital assets, along with their passwords, to ensure that nothing falls through the cracks. Your financial advisor and attorney can help guide you through this process.
Create a Contingency Fund
If you know you have a big-ticket item looming — like a luxury vacation for your family or a new roof — and that there's a high level of certainty that you'll need to pay for it in the next six to 12 months, consider setting aside funds in a money market account or in short-term investments built for liquidity, such as Treasury bills. Many people also create a contingency or emergency fund to support unexpected expenses. Essentially, it's a way to save money that you can access quickly. This fund can help you avoid charging larger, unplanned expenses on a credit card that will end up costing you more if you cannot pay off the balance before interest charges start accruing.
Review Your Portfolio
A lot of decision-making is involved in crafting an investment portfolio. Are the decisions you made the last time you reviewed your portfolio still valid today? For example, is your risk tolerance the same? If you're closer to retirement, maybe you want to take less risk. Also, do you have a clear understanding of the fees associated with your portfolio? This is a good discussion to have with your financial advisor on a yearly basis.
Need Help? Talk to a Personal Financial Advisor
A fiduciary financial advisor will put your needs before theirs. Talk to one today to get professional advice on how you can pursue your financial goals. Let’s talk!
Tom Fridrich is not affiliated with Cetera Advisor Networks, LLC.
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[post_content] => Tom Fridrich, JD, CLUⓇ, ChFCⓇ, Senior Wealth Planner
The end of the year offers an ideal opportunity to look both forward and back — reflecting on recent achievements, while setting goals for the upcoming months. For many of my clients, it's also a time to review their finances and identify moves that can help protect their tax bills.
If you've had a particularly high-income year, you might be feeling especially confident about your finances, and yet facing the upcoming tax liability may come as a shock. Fortunately, there are several strategies that can combine two common money-related goals — reducing your tax burden while contributing to charity.
What Is a “High-Income" Year?
When we talk about a high-income year, we're not referring just to a hefty raise from a promotion or a job change (although that is commendable and likely should invite some financial planning of its own). Here, we're talking about an unusual, often one-time spike in your income.
For example, you might have finalized the sale of your business and received a sizable one-time cash payment, rather than an installment payment over several years. Or maybe you sold property at the height of the market and realized an appreciation that exceeded the capital gains exemption or wasn't eligible for it. Or, you might have received an extraordinarily large bonus or want to exercise stock options that have recently vested.
What Are the Tax Consequences of an Income Spike?
Obviously, most people appreciate that the higher their income, the higher the tax bill. And with ordinary income that is typically expected.
However, if you've been affected by one of these significant events, it can be painful to pay the extra taxes, especially when you recognize that this money flowing into your account is not an ongoing event.
Furthermore, while direct taxes are one thing, it might also trigger indirect consequences. A high-income year could mean you phase out of income credits that are necessary for your day-to-day life. Or it may make you ineligible for the Biden-Harris Administration's Student Debt Relief Plan, which is targeted only to those at a certain income threshold that you would otherwise qualify for.
If you're on Medicare, a high-earning year can increase your health insurance costs and make you subject to what we call “Dear Aunt IRMAA," which stands for “income-related monthly adjusted amount" and results in a surcharge in your Part B and Part D premiums.
What Are the Benefits of Giving to Charity in a High-Income Year?
Simultaneously, many people realize this windfall offers the chance to make a philanthropic donation in a way they've been unable to previously. Perhaps you've made smaller donations throughout the year or have tithed faithfully to a religious organization, but never felt as though you were in the position to make a more substantial gift — until now.
Thanks to this financial event, you can now make a bigger impact, while also reaping tax advantages.
What Are Some Ways You Can Give to Charity in this High-Income Year?
While you obviously could always make a direct cash gift to the organization of your choice, there are some other vehicles that might offer additional benefits. Here are three to consider:
Here’s another look at the same thing, but breaking it down by each year.
Should we be surprised that stocks have had a tough go so far in 2022? Maybe not, as this next chart shows the worst time for stocks is a midterm year under a new President. With the S&P 500 up only 2.4% on average these years, it helps put the disappointing year so far into perspective. Now check out what happens the following year, which might be something many investors could be smiling about soon enough.
One of the most well-known investor axioms is “Sell in May and Go Away,” as those six months are some of the worst of the year. It played out this year, but what we don’t hear nearly as much about is how well stocks tend to do from November through April. Sure enough, looking at those six months during a midterm year and we find that stocks have been higher the past 18 times.
[post_title] => Let’s Talk About Midterm Elections and Your Investments
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[post_content] => Kevin Oleszewski, Senior Wealth Planner
‘Tis the season to give. In fact, 37% of charitable giving occurs during the last quarter of the year — 20% of it in December alone, according to a survey conducted by the Blackbaud Institute. And while the holidays are traditionally a time to reflect on our blessings and help those less fortunate than ourselves, there's another factor influencing the timing of these donations — and that's the goal of minimizing a tax bill.
Of course, any charitable donation should be driven by altruism and the desire to make a difference. The great news is that we're a generous society. Despite the uncertainty of the past few years, giving from individual donors remains on the rise. The Blackbaud Institute survey found giving increased 9% in 2021 over 2020, with overall giving rising 19% since 2019.
However, there's nothing wrong with embracing the opportunity to help your own finances while helping others. While most donors give the conventional way, via a direct cash gift, there are other less traditional but impactful ways to give that can also provide a boost to your tax strategy.
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[post_content] => Get ready to tackle 2023 with this month-by-month financial task list. We've also included important dates so you won't miss key deadlines.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Change happens. And whether we carefully plan for these changes, or we are taken by surprise by change, it's how we react to those changes that help dictate if they will ultimately be to our advantage. Whether it's a sudden inheritance, or a divorce settlement that is higher than anticipated, deciding what to do with an unexpected sum of money should happen after emotions have been processed.
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[post_content] => Have questions about how to incorporate your employee benefits into your financial plan? Talk to your financial advisor today or request an initial meeting with one of our highly qualified fiduciary advisors.
Download the checklist today to get started.
[post_title] => Commonly Overlooked Employee Benefits
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[post_content] => Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a qualified professional first. We put together a few charts to help you start that conversation.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Medicare can be a confusing topic for many. You can't simply sign up anytime you want – and your enrollment timeframe can depend on a variety of factors. To help you figure out when your eligibility begins, we have put together the following flowchart.
Download the checklist today to get started.
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[post_content] => Welcome to December
Can you believe we’ve made it to the final month of the year? Stocks gained nicely in October and November (more on that below), but now we head into the jolliest month of them all. The good news is no month is more likely to be higher for stocks. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time in December since 1950. Stocks have gained 1.5% on average this month, with only April and November faring better.
After the big rally off the mid-October lows, some type of consolidation or modest breather would be perfectly normal early in December, but we expect the recent strength to continue. Some market analysts are calling this a ‘bear market rally,’ similar to the 17% rally over the summer. Bear market rallies are periods when stocks bounce well only to move back to new lows. But there are several differences: many more stocks are participating in this rally; many other sectors are participating, suggesting the underpinnings are stronger now; and August and September are historically two of the worst months of the year (especially in a midterm election year), while the coming months and quarters are seasonally quite strong.
Historically, midterm election years are the worst for stocks out of the four-year presidential cycle, but the good news is the best year is the following one, the pre-election year. Looking at the past eight times a midterm year was lower, the following year was higher every single time, up 24.6% on average. This could have bulls smiling in 2023 should history repeat.
One More Good Sign
As mentioned above, many investors think this is a bear market rally and eventual new lows are coming for stocks, but we disagree. Here’s the best way to show this. The S&P 500 soared 8.0% in October off the bear market lows, but it then added another 5.4% in November. This back-to-back 5% monthly gain is extremely rare and a sign of strength, consistent with previous bear market lows. This occurred in the summer of 2020 and the periods following the bear market lows in 2003 and 2009. Those weren’t the worst times to be on the lookout for improvement.
The chart below shows all times the S&P 500 has had back-to-back 5% monthly gains. The future returns are quite strong, with the average return a year later up 22.2% on average and higher 13 out of 13 times.
Don’t Count This Economy Out
The big headline for the November payroll report was that 263,000 jobs were created last month, well above expectations of 200,000. Job growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, but make no mistake, this is still a very strong pace of job growth. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in his recent comments, Fed members think monthly job gains of 100,000 are required to keep up with population growth. We’ve been well above that recently.
Overall job growth in 2022 totaled a whopping 4.3 million, putting it in line for the second-best year for job creation in 83 years (only last year was better). Also, the unemployment rate is currently at 3.7%, which is close to a record low.
It should not be a surprise that consumption is strong. Real personal consumption, i.e., after adjusting for prices, is accelerating once again. Much is on the back of vehicle sales, which are rebounding as production recovers. Keep in mind that consumption makes up about 70% of the economy.
The biggest reason for accelerating consumption is incomes are rising again after adjusting for prices. Real personal incomes have increased by 1.2% over the five months through October.
In short, inflation is easing, meaning incomes are rising on a real basis, allowing consumers to spend more — and they are. We believe this will continue into 2023 as inflation pulls back even more. Note that consumers still have excess savings from the pandemic. They’ve pulled about $1 trillion out of it over the last year, but that still leaves more than $1 trillion left over.
None of this is what you would expect if the economy is, or was, close to a recession.
Is There Anything to Worry About?
Yes, there is — the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made important comments in his speech last Wednesday. The headline was that the Fed is going to ease the pace of rate hikes, which is welcome news. Also positive was the fact that the Fed was encouraged by the pullback in goods inflation. Powell also acknowledged that official rental inflation lags the sharp deceleration in rents that we see in private data (see our prior writing on this here and here).
However, the Fed is still worried about everything else, i.e., services inflation outside of housing, such as medical care, personal care services, insurance, financial services, education, childcare, etc. These make up about half of core inflation (ex-food and energy). While these categories did see a pullback in October, that’s just one month. The key is that Powell and the Fed believe these will ultimately be dependent on the labor market, especially wage growth.
The November payroll report did not have great news concerning this. Wage growth accelerated, rising 0.6% for all private workers (versus the expected 0.3%) and 0.7% for non-managerial employees, who tend to spend relatively more of their incomes. On a three-month basis, hourly wages are running at an annualized pace of 5.8% for all private workers and 6.4% for non-managerial workers. These are well above pre-pandemic averages, which is probably where the Fed would like it to be.
Wage growth by itself is a good thing. But the Fed believes stronger wage growth will keep upward pressure on inflation. Color us a little skeptical about this, especially given all the other data we’re seeing. But it doesn’t matter what we think. We need to follow the Fed’s framework, which means there is still a risk that the Fed overtightens and pushes the economy into a recession.
Our base case is the economy is strong enough to handle the aggressive rate hikes for now. All the data that came out this week confirms that likelihood. Plus, it looks like the Fed is going to slow down the pace of rate increases. This is important because it buys time for inflation to ease even more, hopefully convincing the Fed to back off in early 2023. And as we discussed at the top, markets may be sniffing out this bullish possibility.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case # 01575165
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[post_content] => A More Positive 2023
Stocks continued to move higher last week, with the Dow back above 34,000 and officially closing at a new seven-month high along the way. After energy led the rally, several other sectors, including financials, health care, materials, and industrials are now participating and showing strength. This is encouraging and makes us more confident with our call that the bear market ended in mid-October.
A Healthy Consumer
Last week, a strong retail sales report boosted economic growth expectations for the fourth quarter. But the big question is whether consumer spending will remain strong in 2023. This is important because consumption, or lack thereof, will determine whether the U.S. will experience a recession over the next 12 months. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, so that’s pretty much the ball game. We believe the consumer is in a strong position for several reasons.
Most consumers spend out of their wages, so it helps to look at overall income in the economy. The chart below shows the year-over-year growth in aggregate weekly earnings, i.e., weekly earnings across all workers, which can be attributed to three sources:
Aggregate earnings growth has slowed this year, from 11% to 8%. However, it is still higher than the pre-crisis pace of just under 5%. Employment growth will likely slow in 2023. Payroll gains have averaged about 289,000 over the past three months, but even half that number would create solid income growth comparable to pre-pandemic levels.
Consumers Still Have Excess Savings
Between April 2020 and July 2021, consumers saved an estimated $2.3 trillion over and above the pre-crisis trend. Much was due to fiscal policy, such as stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits. However, for the top 25% of earners, it was almost entirely due to reduced spending amid the pandemic.
Over the past year, consumers have drawn down these excess savings by an estimated $800 billion. But savings are still high.
Most of these excess savings are held by the top 50% of income earners. Inflation tends to hit lower-income workers harder, which means they probably had to draw on more of their excess savings to fund purchases.
But the consumer got a big break recently in the form of retreating gas prices. Gas prices are now almost back to where they were on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a sense, just like higher gas prices were effectively a tax on incomes, falling gas prices are akin to a tax cut.
Consumers Still Have Borrowing Capacity
Credit card spending is rising, which is not surprising. Prices are higher and consumers are spending more (even adjusted for prices). But more important than total debt is the debt service burden for households, which is close to record lows. The chart below shows households’ debt service as a percent of disposable income. As of the end of the second quarter, this metric was at 9.6%, well below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%.
Also, credit utilization rates are still low. Consumers have yet to tap into their credit cards and home equity lines of credit to the same extent as before the pandemic hit. Utilization rates are also well below average levels over the past few decades.
Easing Inflation is Positive for Consumers
Excess savings were drawn down this year because income gains were not keeping up with prices. But as inflation eases, real incomes will likely start rising again, and the rate at which that excess savings pot gets depleted should slow down.
Of course, the other side of more robust real incomes is that demand will be strong, which could keep inflation on the higher side. However, we on the Carson Investment Research Team believe inflation will ease due to idiosyncratic downward pressure, as the same forces that boosted inflation reverse.
This should ease pressure on the Fed, and it looks like Fed members are recognizing that they’ve already done a lot by raising rates as much as they have. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting suggest most officials favor a slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases.
All in all, the consumer is in a good position as we go into 2023, raising the likelihood that consumption will remain strong over the next year — and that should help avoid a recession despite the rapid pace of interest rate hikes in 2022.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan is a non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Compliance Case # 01565296
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[post_content] => It is Thanksgiving week, so we want to review a few reasons for investors to be thankful. Yes, it has been a tough year. But things are looking better, and we expect more improvement in 2023.
Gridlock Can Be Good
The first reason to be thankful is stocks have continued to rally off their October lows, and now we have another potential positive: gridlock.
Lastly, Republicans have a narrow majority in the House. At the time of this report, they are expected to have a three-seat majority, the narrowest margin their party has held since 2001 and 2002. We reviewed years with narrow margins and found they generally lead to larger gains. When the House majority is held by fewer than 20 seats, the S&P 500 has gained a median of 19.5% since World War II. Additionally, the first year of a new Congress with a narrow majority, which in this case would be 2023, has been higher nine of the past 10 times.
The U.S. Consumer Remains Strong
The next reason to be thankful is the consumer remains extremely strong. In fact, the consumer’s strength in the face of numerous obstacles is one of the biggest surprises of the year. Last week, October retail sales rose 1.3%, beating expectations for a 1% jump. Prior months were revised higher as well.
One significant reason was stronger gasoline sales, which was a function of prices at the pump rebounding. But sales were also strong across most other areas, including auto sales, restaurant and bar sales, online spending, and even building materials.
One way to account for higher prices across several of these categories is to look at “real retail sales,” i.e., sales adjusted for prices. Real sales rose 0.8% in October, which is the fastest pace in eight months. Real sales had slowed in the summer (May-August), but they are picking up again — a sign of rising “real” incomes thanks to a pullback in inflation. Real sales are now up 3% from December 2021 through October. And in real terms, consumers are spending 10% more than expected if we just extended the pre-pandemic trendline. That’s massive!
Since consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the U.S. economy, real sales offer another clue that a recession is not right around the corner. Many have been sounding the alarm, but with a consumer this strong we don’t see a recession on the horizon. And that’s definitely something to be thankful for.
More Good News on Inflation
As we noted last week, inflation at the consumer level is coming down quicker than expected. Used cars, apparel, and medical insurance all saw solid improvements. Additionally, rent and food inflation are finally showing signs of slowing as well. These sectors were significant contributors to the massive inflation spike.
Last week also produced good news from inflation at the producer level. That’s positive for consumers, because if it costs less to produce goods, companies can sell them for lower prices. In fact, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in October fell 0.5% after falling significantly the last few months. The year-over-year pace is now about 11%, having decelerated from a peak of 19% in March 2022. It still has further to go to return to the pre-pandemic pace of about 2%, but the trend is very encouraging.
All of this means less pressure on the Fed to continue its extremely aggressive stance on hiking rates to slow inflation. The Fed has given the patient a lot of medicine, and with real signs of improvement Fed members might pause to let the medicine work its magic. In fact, we think the odds of the Fed pausing rate hikes early next year are increasing greatly.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Crypto-Currencies, Digital Assets and other Block-Chain related technology (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs and others) are not securities, not regulated, and not approved products offered by Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Crypto-currencies and other block-chain related non-securities products cannot be recommended, offered, or held by the firm.
Compliance Case # 01559707
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[post_content] => On the heels of a huge month for stocks in October, the bull continued to soar in November, as the S&P 500 had its best week since June and the NASDAQ had its best week since March. Sparking much of the rally was news that inflation has likely peaked and is finally slowing. We’ll discuss that more below, but the bottom line is this could be a major catalyst for a continuation of the rally. We noted recently that many bear markets have ended in October, and we continue to think the odds are above average that it happened once again.
The chart also shows that food prices (dark red bars) continue to account for a large chunk of inflation. But we got a break here as well. “Food at home,” i.e., groceries, which make up close to 9% of the inflation basket, rose just 0.4% in October. That’s the lowest in more than a year and well below the average 0.7% monthly increase that occurred over the first nine months of 2022.
The Goods Deflation We’ve Been Waiting For
Private inflation data has shown decelerating prices for goods outside of energy and food. At Carson, our chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, wrote recently about collapsing used car prices. Retailers have been telling us for a while that they’re discounting items as well. We’ve just been waiting for the official inflation data to catch up, and it looks like that’s finally happening.
A broad list of goods, including used cars, saw prices fall in October, which is what makes it even more encouraging. The items below make up about 11% of the inflation basket (and 14% of the core basket). Falling household goods prices probably reflect the slowdown in residential activity, as home sales collapse amid higher mortgage rates.
Are Rents Breaking?
The best part about goods deflation is it offsets high services inflation. As the chart below shows, vehicles (blue bars) are now below the zero line for the second month in a row. We also got good news in the form of medical care services, which was a function of falling health insurance premiums.
The largest sector of the inflation basket is shelter, including rents on primary residences and “Owners’ Equivalent Rent” (OER), which is the “implied rent” that owner-occupants would have to pay if they were renting their homes. The latter is also determined using rents of equivalent homes. In other words, OER is effectively a measure of rents, and altogether rents make up a whopping 40% of the core inflation basket.
Rents have been rising, putting a lot of upward pressure on core inflation. As shown in the previous chart, housing (gray bars) grew larger and larger over the past year.
However, market rents have decelerated quite rapidly over the last few months. The problem is this movement hasn’t shown up in the official inflation data because of methodological reasons (we wrote about this quite extensively).
But the official rental data may be beginning to turn. Rent of primary residences rose 0.7%, and OER rose 0.6% in October. These are smaller increases than what we’ve seen over the previous couple of months. Make no mistake, a 0.7% rise is still a lot — it translates to an annualized pace of 9%, which is why the Fed is really worried about it. But hopefully the October report is a sign that the official data is beginning to turn lower.
A Soft Inflation Print Acts as a Pressure Release Valve
The softer-than-expected core inflation print was the catalyst for the S&P 500 Index gaining 5.5% on the day the inflation report was released, marking its best day since April 2020. The chart below shows some historical perspective for days that saw more than 5% gains. One year later, markets were up 91% of the time, with an average return of almost 28%.
The market’s response shows how much negativity and expected hawkishness from the Fed has been priced in. A soft report was like a pressure release valve.
We Need Time, and the Inflation Data Bought Us Time
One month does not make a trend, but the October inflation report was still very positive. Several leading indicators have shown decelerating prices. (We’ve written about this here and here.) The official data is clearly lagging, but the timing of the inflection point was uncertain. And it looks like we may have just gotten it.
This report is important for two main reasons:
Firstly, the goods deflation in October offset the upward pressure from strong price increases in services, which is primarily rents. It effectively buys time for official rental data to catch up to the private data, which are showing a rapid decline in rents.
Two, it buys time for the Fed. If this was yet another hot inflation print, that would have put enormous pressure on the Fed to go for a 75 bps (0.75%) increase in December. But now it looks like a 50 bps increase is the most likely scenario, assuming the November CPI report doesn’t surprise us by coming in hot. Investor expectations have shifted significantly. The probability of a 50 bps hike has gone from a near coin flip (57%) to 85%.
An interesting point Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a couple of weeks ago was that improved inflation data is not a precondition for slowing the pace of rate hikes. Instead, it’s the terminal rate that matters. The terminal rate is the highest rate the Fed will hike up to this cycle, and at the September meeting, Fed members released projections estimating it to be around 4.6%. Markets have expected this number to move close to 5% when the Fed releases new projections at its December meeting. If the October inflation numbers had come in hot, there would have been a lot of pressure on Fed officials to take the terminal rate projection well above 5%. But this report eases that pressure, and investors are currently looking at a terminal rate just shy of 5%.
We also saw a marked downshift in policy rate expectations one to three years from now. That makes sense. If inflation decelerates quickly, then rates don’t have to be as high as previously expected. Of course, a lot will happen between now and then. This is why we focus on the near term as far as investor expectations and Fed projections go. They can change significantly.
Last week was a big one with some major events, including the midterm elections and the crypto mess. But we were once again reminded that the overarching concerns right now are the Fed’s next steps, and for that, look to inflation.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Ryan and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Advisor Networks.
Crypto-Currencies, Digital Assets and other Block-Chain related technology (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, NFTs and others) are not securities, not regulated, and not approved products offered by Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Crypto-currencies and other block-chain related non-securities products cannot be recommended, offered, or held by the firm.
Compliance Case # 01550993
[post_title] => Market Commentary: A Big Bounce
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[post_content] => As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.75% to the 3.75-4% range on Wednesday. This was the fourth successive 0.75% hike. The initial market focus was on a new line inserted in the official statement, wherein the Fed nodded in the direction of decelerating the pace of rate hikes. Markets reacted positively to this, but Chair Jerome Powell was quick to remind investors that the level of rates matters more than the pace to get there. And Fed officials think the level (or “terminal rate”) should be higher than what they thought it should be in September. That immediately sent stocks into sharp negative territory.
Midterm Elections are Here
As the midterm elections have approached, we’ve received numerous questions on the potential impact. On the Carson Investment Research team, we encourage clients not to mix politics with investing. We know that investors who stayed out of the markets because they disliked previous administrations missed out on significant gains.
As past elections have shown, the party that lost the prior presidential election is typically more motivated and gains seats in the Senate and House. Should this pattern hold again and the Republicans take both chambers of Congress, stocks will likely benefit as divided government bodes well for the markets. A Democratic president and Republican-controlled Congress has seen the S&P 500 gain more than 16% on average during the calendar year. This occurred in the late 1990s under President Bill Clinton. If the Democrats keep control of the Senate, the market impact is about a coin flip. But the good news is a Democratic president with a split Congress is also a bullish scenario.
The overall picture, and good news, is the year following a midterm election has been positive in 20 out of 20 years since WWII, with an average return of 14.1%. While it is not guaranteed to happen again, the outlook based on history is positive.
The Carson Investment Research team recently chatted with Libby Cantrill from PIMCO on the firm’s new podcast, Facts vs Feelings. Libby is an expert who helps investors understand the intersection of politics, policy, and markets.
A Tale of Two Employment Reports
The October payroll report offered a mixed picture. Two headline numbers stand out:
As the chart shows, the difference between employment gains reported by the two surveys was larger in April and June of this year. In April, nonfarm payrolls rose by 368,000, while the household survey reported employment fell by 353,000. In June, nonfarm payrolls rose by 293,000, but the household survey saw employment falling by 315,000. It goes the other way, too. In January, the household survey saw employment rise by 1.2 million, while nonfarm payrolls rose “only” 504,000.
However, both surveys reveal a similar picture over time.
Over short periods of time, one survey can accelerate much faster than the other. During the height of the pandemic (Mar-Apr 2020), the household survey reported significantly more job losses than the establishment survey: 25.5 million vs. 22 million. But the household survey caught up and even ran ahead of the establishment survey through January of this year. Now the establishment data is powering ahead while the other slows.
So, is the job market weak or not?
That’s the big question. Given the volatility of the numbers in the household survey, I tend to put more weight on the establishment data, with the caveat that establishment payroll data can be revised, although markets (and the Fed) react to current data.
A more nuanced view is the employment situation is clearly slowing. But 261,000 jobs created in a month is still very strong. In fact, over the 20 years through 2019, a period that covered two economic expansions, the average monthly job gains in months when payrolls grew was about 182,000. And over the three years prior to the pandemic (Mar 2017-Feb 2020), payroll growth averaged about 186,000 per month.
Now, the unemployment rate has increased to 3.7%, but one month does not make a trend. The same thing happened in August when the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% before falling back to 3.5% in September.
What Matters (to the Fed) is Wage Growth
A key piece of information in the payroll reports is average hourly earnings. This is the mechanism through which the Fed believes it can (and needs to) pull down inflation. From the Fed’s perspective, weakening the labor market will reduce income growth, and that should ultimately reduce spending power and inflation.
Wage growth is in a clear downtrend. Average hourly earnings ticked slightly higher for private workers last month, but over the past three months it’s grown at an annualized pace of 3.9%, well below the past year’s pace and not much above the pre-pandemic pace of 3.1%. In fact, for production and non-supervisory workers, who tend to spend more of their incomes, the three-month pace of wage growth has fallen to 4.3%, down from 7.5% at the end of last year and approaching the pre-pandemic rate of 3.4%.
The good news is wage growth appears to be slowing even as employment remains strong. This is the “soft landing” scenario: wage pressure and inflation easing without a breakdown of the labor market, which runs counter to what the Fed believes will (and should) happen. Hopefully, easing wage pressure means the Fed doesn’t have to ratchet rates higher and higher. We just need inflation to cooperate, and that depends on a lot more than wages.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case # 01543039
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[post_content] => Welcome to December
Can you believe we’ve made it to the final month of the year? Stocks gained nicely in October and November (more on that below), but now we head into the jolliest month of them all. The good news is no month is more likely to be higher for stocks. The S&P 500 has been up 75% of the time in December since 1950. Stocks have gained 1.5% on average this month, with only April and November faring better.
After the big rally off the mid-October lows, some type of consolidation or modest breather would be perfectly normal early in December, but we expect the recent strength to continue. Some market analysts are calling this a ‘bear market rally,’ similar to the 17% rally over the summer. Bear market rallies are periods when stocks bounce well only to move back to new lows. But there are several differences: many more stocks are participating in this rally; many other sectors are participating, suggesting the underpinnings are stronger now; and August and September are historically two of the worst months of the year (especially in a midterm election year), while the coming months and quarters are seasonally quite strong.
Historically, midterm election years are the worst for stocks out of the four-year presidential cycle, but the good news is the best year is the following one, the pre-election year. Looking at the past eight times a midterm year was lower, the following year was higher every single time, up 24.6% on average. This could have bulls smiling in 2023 should history repeat.
One More Good Sign
As mentioned above, many investors think this is a bear market rally and eventual new lows are coming for stocks, but we disagree. Here’s the best way to show this. The S&P 500 soared 8.0% in October off the bear market lows, but it then added another 5.4% in November. This back-to-back 5% monthly gain is extremely rare and a sign of strength, consistent with previous bear market lows. This occurred in the summer of 2020 and the periods following the bear market lows in 2003 and 2009. Those weren’t the worst times to be on the lookout for improvement.
The chart below shows all times the S&P 500 has had back-to-back 5% monthly gains. The future returns are quite strong, with the average return a year later up 22.2% on average and higher 13 out of 13 times.
Don’t Count This Economy Out
The big headline for the November payroll report was that 263,000 jobs were created last month, well above expectations of 200,000. Job growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, but make no mistake, this is still a very strong pace of job growth. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in his recent comments, Fed members think monthly job gains of 100,000 are required to keep up with population growth. We’ve been well above that recently.
Overall job growth in 2022 totaled a whopping 4.3 million, putting it in line for the second-best year for job creation in 83 years (only last year was better). Also, the unemployment rate is currently at 3.7%, which is close to a record low.
It should not be a surprise that consumption is strong. Real personal consumption, i.e., after adjusting for prices, is accelerating once again. Much is on the back of vehicle sales, which are rebounding as production recovers. Keep in mind that consumption makes up about 70% of the economy.
The biggest reason for accelerating consumption is incomes are rising again after adjusting for prices. Real personal incomes have increased by 1.2% over the five months through October.
In short, inflation is easing, meaning incomes are rising on a real basis, allowing consumers to spend more — and they are. We believe this will continue into 2023 as inflation pulls back even more. Note that consumers still have excess savings from the pandemic. They’ve pulled about $1 trillion out of it over the last year, but that still leaves more than $1 trillion left over.
None of this is what you would expect if the economy is, or was, close to a recession.
Is There Anything to Worry About?
Yes, there is — the Federal Reserve.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made important comments in his speech last Wednesday. The headline was that the Fed is going to ease the pace of rate hikes, which is welcome news. Also positive was the fact that the Fed was encouraged by the pullback in goods inflation. Powell also acknowledged that official rental inflation lags the sharp deceleration in rents that we see in private data (see our prior writing on this here and here).
However, the Fed is still worried about everything else, i.e., services inflation outside of housing, such as medical care, personal care services, insurance, financial services, education, childcare, etc. These make up about half of core inflation (ex-food and energy). While these categories did see a pullback in October, that’s just one month. The key is that Powell and the Fed believe these will ultimately be dependent on the labor market, especially wage growth.
The November payroll report did not have great news concerning this. Wage growth accelerated, rising 0.6% for all private workers (versus the expected 0.3%) and 0.7% for non-managerial employees, who tend to spend relatively more of their incomes. On a three-month basis, hourly wages are running at an annualized pace of 5.8% for all private workers and 6.4% for non-managerial workers. These are well above pre-pandemic averages, which is probably where the Fed would like it to be.
Wage growth by itself is a good thing. But the Fed believes stronger wage growth will keep upward pressure on inflation. Color us a little skeptical about this, especially given all the other data we’re seeing. But it doesn’t matter what we think. We need to follow the Fed’s framework, which means there is still a risk that the Fed overtightens and pushes the economy into a recession.
Our base case is the economy is strong enough to handle the aggressive rate hikes for now. All the data that came out this week confirms that likelihood. Plus, it looks like the Fed is going to slow down the pace of rate increases. This is important because it buys time for inflation to ease even more, hopefully convincing the Fed to back off in early 2023. And as we discussed at the top, markets may be sniffing out this bullish possibility.
This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.
Compliance Case # 01575165
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[post_content] => Watch Carson Group’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada’s informational webinar that can help you discover which giving strategy you should pursue for tax efficiency.
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[post_title] => Q4 2022: Quarterly Market Outlook
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[post_date] => 2022-05-26 08:18:44
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[post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions
Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
[post_title] => COVID’s Financial Toll Isn’t What You Think
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[post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group
Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.
Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.
Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.
Read full article on Kiplinger.com
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[post_content] => Omaha, NE – May 20, 2021 – Gold Family Wealth, a leading wealth management and financial planning firm based in Westport, Connecticut, and a member of the Carson Partners network, has added Daniel Armas, CFP®, as Managing Partner and Wealth Advisor. A consummate professional with more than 18 years of financial planning experience, Armas has expanded the firm’s geographical footprint by opening an office in Red Bank, New Jersey, and helped raise the firm’s assets under management to approximately $172 million.
“In the short time since Gold Family Wealth joined the Carson network, the firm has shown itself to be an excellent partner with a client-first attitude that aligns with our core values,” said Founder and CEO Ron Carson. “With the addition of Dan Armas as Managing Partner and an office in Monmouth County, New Jersey, we're confident that Gold Family Wealth will continue to grow and prosper.”
“I have long admired Carson Group, but they didn't have a local office in New Jersey, and I was not necessarily looking to open one alone," explained Dan Armas. “Partnering with Michael Gold and becoming part of the Carson ecosystem was exactly what I was seeking for the next stage of my career. Michael and I have the same philosophy and agree that growing our firm in the right way and being strategic about the opportunities we pursue will provide the most benefit to clients."
Throughout his career Armas has cultivated a client niche of higher education professionals from New Jersey colleges and universities. Going forward he will continue to work with that demographic, while also working with other clients throughout New Jersey (and the country) on retirement planning, investment management, tax planning and risk management.
"I joined Carson because as a partner I would be able to offer so much more to my clients and the institutional support that would allow me to focus on clients and growing the business," said Wealth Advisor Michael Gold, CFP®, MBA, founder and CEO. "Dan is an experienced planner with a great client base and I'm really grateful that Carson matched us up. We both have long careers in front of us and I'm confident that together we will build a practice that will stand the test of time.”
Recognized year after year by Barron’s as one of America’s top wealth management firms, Carson Group remains among the Inc. 5000 list of America’s fastest-growing companies. Carson currently serves more than 37,000 families through it’s 133 partner locations across the country.
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[post_content] => Everyone loves a success story.
Michael Gold, founder and wealth advisor of Gold Family Wealth, is one of those stories. He grew up in a tiny apartment in Queens, sharing a bedroom with his older sister. He struggled throughout his youth, trying and failing to overcome lackluster education opportunities, a poor neighborhood, and losing his mother to cancer.
Continue Reading on City Lifestyle
[post_title] => Gold Nuggets: Valuable Financial Tips From Wealth Advisor Michael Gold
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[post_content] => For Michael Gold, president and CEO of Gold Family Wealth, clients become family. He is on a mission every day to enrich their lives and enhance their experience by delivering massive value in helping them realize their financial goals, while working to preserve and safeguard their wealth.
Continue Reading on Forbes
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Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.
The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.
Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.
Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.
Sadly, she is far from alone.
Read the full article
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